Let's Really Talk About The Next Generation

What can you say about the Xbox 360 and the PlayStation 3? It's been a long and illustrious career for both of them, hasn't it? At release, they were powerful systems, and provided a level of graphics and gameplay that has left many people with few complaints. Part of this longevity is owed to the developers who have continually pushed the chips inside past their limits. They've done the impossible at times, porting games that are considered cutting-edge on the PC, and doing so with a surprising amount of their aesthetic intact.

When Gears of War first released, I figured that was pretty much it. We had already seen what these consoles would be capable of. But that was 2006, and since then, many franchises would continue to push effects, adding little-by-little until the third or fourth entries looked unrecognizable compared to the first. Screen-space ambient occlusion, global illumination, depth of field, god rays, soft shadows, massive draw distances, and previously unimaginable levels of detail and geometry were once reserved for the hardware elite. And yet somehow, they've been squeezed one-by-one into these aging boxes. John Carmack has said as recently as last year that he didn't think we've reached the bottom of what their potential is. In some ways, it almost does seem limitless.

Others aren't so optimistic. Whoever's right, most would agree that the advancements are slowing down, and at some point we have to hit a dead end. Some are happy with what we have, but others are growing a little bored of the limitations. It's getting to be pretty clear that the industry is soon due for an upgrade.

A lot of people think 2013 is the big year. Kotaku is one of them. The evidence, they say, is in the absence of evidence. For most of next year, we actually don't know much about what the game releases are going to be. Signs, they say, pointing to a big reveal in the coming months.

Obviously there's a chance some things could slip into 2014 (Sony is supposedly the most likely to do that), and it's hard to judge based on so little information. Both companies have kept a surprisingly tight lid on things, which isn't uncommon for Microsoft (see the 360 Slim), but is rather uncharacteristic of their rather leaky competitor. This might mean that Sony is still in the very early stages on their next platform, but it hasn't stopped the rumor mill from churning away at the component details for both platforms.

What we know of the hardware, or what we think we know, is a vague spec sheet dominated on both sides by AMD. Codenames differ depending on who you talk to, with some referring to Sony and Microsoft's next consoles as Orbis and Durango, respectively. Others call them Thebes and Kryptos. The leaked info is just as wishy-washy, first claiming Durango will use a PowerPC CPU with 16 threads, and now claiming an AMD Jaguar-based CPU will be at the center. With enhancements, this may give passable performance, but as a successor to the low-power Bobcat, it's decidedly not highend.

Some have said the PS4 might make use of a similar CPU. Generally Sony has pretty consistently been associated with AMD's Fusion, but the latest rumors suggest a more powerful variant in the form of a Trinity APU. It's unknown what either console might use the on-die GPU for, whether to enhance graphics performance, floating-point general performance, or some other function, but it might simply be left open to the developer.

Both systems seem to agree on the amount of RAM, with a unified pool of around 8GB. AMD seems to have won over both companies on GPU choice as well, with current dev kits believed to be playing with HD 7000 generation hardware. The overall performance picture suggests a notch under what's considered top-of-the-line for a 2012 PC, and by next year those specs should shrink comfortably into a reasonably sized enclosure. Each company learned the hard way that cutting edge can quickly become bleeding edge, and this may be the first time in the history of consoles where launch performance does not surpass or even match the absolute state-of-the-art.

That won't make a great deal of difference though, as developers are already gearing up for the new standard. Optimizations created for the DX9+ class hardware of the previous generation will carry over to the next generation, as DX11 won't fundamentally change their programming. This will close the gap between PCs early on, and help to keep development costs down as this time they won't be starting from scratch. Many of the top studios already have their engines lined up, and some are even hard-at-work putting them to use in future unannounced games.

What will this mean for existing consoles though? As I've said in the past, I believe the 360 will live on for a while as a budget-friendly alternative for less hardcore gamers and children, thanks to the Kinect. The PS3, with a fresh new redesign, will probably carry on the PlayStation tradition with a few years of extended sales, though probably not to the degree of the PS2.

The Wii is already being phased out with the arrival of its next-in-line, and while I doubt the Wii U will enjoy quite the same level of success, it should deliver on the expected quality of Nintendo franchises. It may run into a familiar problem, however, when it comes to third party support. While the launch showed some promise, we're already missing important releases like Far Cry 3, Crysis 3, GTAV, Tomb Raider, or Bioshock Infinite. It will be hard enough keeping up with the big boys, but even harder if last-gen games aren't showing up in large amounts either.

What will this mean for PC gaming? Normally it may not have been worth mentioning, but the recent revelation of a possible Valve-produced turn-key PC for the living room creates an interesting situation. The idea of taking the PC, with all its advantages, and removing the scary technical obstacles (not to mention price) that get in the way of mainstream adoption has some merit to it. The idea has been toyed with before, of course, with the infamous Phantom game console, and even the Xbox, whose original purpose was to showcase the features of DirectX in an attractive closed PC. Either these ideas never panned out, or they just ended up being consoles.

Obviously Valve would like to have a standardized hardware platform that developers can target their games for, but they're probably not looking for an exclusive library. Part of the advantage of Steam is having a massive catalog of games going way back in PC gaming history, and I don't count on them wanting to lose that. Valve can create waves and encourage change in the larger gaming community in ways that PC gaming hasn't been able to before (aside from digital distribution, online gaming, patches and DLC), and it might force platform makers to reevaluate how they price their games and where they prioritize their revenue flow. In all honesty, because of friends lists, brand recognition, and a tiny handful of exclusives, I don't see most gamers choosing a closed PC over a console, but big sales may not even be the point of this move. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds, to say the least.

The future of gaming in general looks bright. Every generation, not only does gameplay improve, but storytelling along with it. This has lead to gaming taking a more prominent place among media, for better or for worse. But as the industry evolves, more and more of the people outside of gaming will see the medium not just as a killing simulator, but as a legitimate method of expressing a narrative, through characters you actually care about, and dialog and events that play out realistically. This is already happening with games like The Walking Dead and Last of Us, where the characters take the center stage. Even Far Cry 3 and Hitman: Absolution have been advertised on TV on the basis of their story, and not just with the use of a mindless explosion reel.

Eventually the hardware on which we guide these stories won't matter. The large amount of memory on these new consoles seems to indicate they'll be around for a very long time, and this last generation has shown us that future hardware upgrades will take longer to make an appearance, as cost and technology become increasingly prohibitive factors. It may even come to pass that the generation that follows this one won't be on consoles at all, but in the cloud, where such limitations melt away. Whatever it entails, it promises to be exciting.