Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Looking ahead at the WiiU

In my first rambling about the WiiU, I made the following statement:

Reggie went on stage and told the E3 audience that many felt the hardcore folks weren't being catered to by Nintendo. This is something they wanted to change with the new system, so they created a system for "you", meaning the audience he was speaking to at the presentation consisting mostly of hardcore gamers. We're so confident this system will appeal to you, he said, that we're even putting it in the name. So, that in a nutshell is how they explained away the reason behind the U.

So we're a couple months away from the next E3, and that is when the real selling is going to have to happen. Nintendo is going to have to pimp their next home console like it's the last home console they make. Why? Well, if they don't sell anybody on it now, what are they going to do? Drop the price on it four months later?

We're saddled with two burning questions that need answering when the big June convention takes place:

  • What does the WiiU offer hardcore gamers?
  • What does the WiiU offer casual gamers?

Hardcore gamers haven't taken Nintendo seriously for a few generations now. It really started when third parties left in droves at the sight of another cartridge system in the midst of the CD era. All Nintendo systems have some great examples of games on them, but with the Nintendo 64 and GameCube, we were starting to see fewer of those greats produced by people besides Big N. Nintendo doesn't make games that appeal to all tastes, and they're certainly limited in how many they can produce each year. At this point though, they're getting used to having to carry their own hardware on their back, and when they tried deviating from this track during the 3DS launch, they received a firm leather strap across the cheeks and hastily jumped back in line.

Fortunately Nintendo games sell tens of millions of units fairly commonly these days, but tens of millions isn't a great number if you're talking about lifetime console sales. Depending solely on first-party games isn't a formula for long-term success, and while Wii and DS had plenty of third-party support, this was usually in the form of programs and really casual games. So it's pretty clear that if Nintendo wants to attract the sales of the folks playing Call of Duty and Assassin's Creed, they're going to need the developers that made them.

So let's say the WiiU gets a large showing of these types of games, and Nintendo can finally count themselves among the big boys again. Will the hardcores buy it? Hardcores often love new hardware, and they won't be shy to something that offers legitimate technological and/or gameplay advantages. Although shit still needs to be finalized and rumors put to bed, the latest word is that in some ways, the new Nintendo system is less powerful than the current generation. That's a terrible prospect to say the least, but even assuming that claim is exaggerated, no one was really expecting much better than par anyway.

Without a horsepower advantage, you're going to need a hell of a gameplay advantage to convince the hardcores that spending $300 on a new console that plays the same games at the same quality is still worthwhile. The problem is, hardcores don't care for gimmicks. They don't like having to learn to perform the same actions in a way that's different from the methods they've mastered over the past couple decades. Waggling to make a character attack is not inherently more fun than simply timing a button press. Nintendo hopes that the tablet controller will feel like a hardcore gamer's controller with some added useful functionality.

How useful remains to be seen. Streaming games to the controller brings you back to a single screen again, and that feature has been explored pretty thoroughly already. The other useful feature is expanded information and easy access to special game functions. Removing your eyes from the action on the big screen to look down on your controller is like being caught with your pants down in a multi-player match, or a particularly action-packed single player moment, so that aspect might not appeal to some hardcores. Without rewriting the gameplay on a fundamental level, however, games ported to the WiiU from the PS3 and 360 will merely have their menu options, HUD elements, and/or special actions spliced out of the main screen and off of the easy-to-reach face buttons, potentially over-complicating gameplay and disrupting flow. Again, hardcores don't like being forced to do familiar actions in convoluted way. That doesn't scream "new" or "innovative" to them, it just seems pointless at best, and harmful at worst.

If the controller alone can't sell the expensive new console, hardcores will choose to pocket their money instead, and find another way to play Darksiders II. That money will come in handy when the real next-gen hits, offering much more meaningful advances over the status quo. If Nintendo's whole hardcore endeavor fails, who's going to buy the system?

Well, Nintendo fans will, naturally. For those following the storied game company since childhood, a new Mario game will be all the enticing necessary to justify a new platform. Fortunately for them, as well as all the other millions of Mario fans out there, his games almost never disappoint. Nintendo has done a remarkably good job maintaining quality in their flagship series, and one that will receive possibly the biggest upgrade will be The Legend of Zelda. The teaser video at the WiiU's announcement showed how much Zelda's art style can benefit from pixel shaders and high resolution assets, and that controller is bound to do some awesome things for the gameplay.

But what about casuals? They bought and loved the Wii, thanks to its inviting potency among folks from all perspectives, from soccer moms to grandparents. For non-gamers, the Wii was likely the last (and often the first) game console they'd ever need to buy. They couldn't care about graphical upgrades or extra wizbangery, so $300 is much too much for their gaming budgets. For many others, the Wii and even smartphone games were gateway drugs to the wider world of gaming. It's the reason why Mario Kart Wii sold almost 30 million despite the absence of cooking recipes and exercise regimes. It's in those folks that Nintendo will see the most potential sales, but only if the price is right. Look no further than the 3DS to see what kind of affect the MSRP plays on Nintendo's biggest market.

In my opinion, the hardcore market is already lost. They love their gaming in a very specific way, and it just doesn't seem like the WiiU delivers on that. The WiiU will have to sell to the same crowd that is currently buying the 3DS, and to do that they'll have to use the same tactic as with the Wii: selling at a cut-rate price to stay out of swinging range of the next-gen and even current-gen consoles. Don't forget, for many people out there, the PS3 and 360 are "good enough" in terms of graphics and features, with further gains likely representing minimal added value as real-time graphics starts to plateau. Those systems can also be had for redonkulously cheap, and will still be around well after their successors are introduced. Add to that, Kinect is helping the 360 make headway into the casual market where the Wii is falling off, and whatever freshness the WiiU brings to the table may already be trumped by controllerless gaming.

More and more parallels between the Wii's launch and the WiiU emerge all the time. Going in the WiiU's favor is that it's not just a repackaged previous-gen console that Nintendo's already produced. Going against the WiiU is the fact that it's a repackaged previous-gen console that other companies produced, while trying to do many of the same things they've been doing for several years now. It all worked out fine for the Wii, but how many times does lightning strike twice?